FX Trading – That's Nice
By Jack Crooks   
July 08, 2010

Was it last week (I don’t know, the weeks are running together these days) when China announced it would allow the yuan to move more flexibly with the market?

Speculation that China’s currency will actually rise, since China’s yuan announcement, has waned. But China is back on the wires telling us they’ll maintain their announced currency policy and be sure that the yuan is stable while they also keep monetary policy nice and loose.

That's nice.

Barack Obama made some comments yesterday about the US economy.

Among them, he wants an “even playing field” in China where US companies can access the growing Chinese marketplace. It’s all part of the goal that the White House has to double exports in five years. After a respectable uptick in export growth over the first four months of 2010, the administration believes the US is on track to meet this goal.

That’s nice.

The IMF just made a revision to their global GDP forecast – I guess this is something they do a lot; some people must find it useful, I guess.

Citing risks in Europe that are compensated by growth in US private spending and overall Asian economic activity, the IMF believes the world will grow by 4.6% in 2010 ... up from the original estimate of 4.2%. They did not change their 2011 forecast. They noted little chance of a double-dip recession.

That’s nice.

As older tax cuts expire and Obamacare sets in, Americans will be seeing an increase in taxes.

Starting in 2011 the tax on personal income will increase for all income brackets. The capital gains tax is set to increase from 15% to 20%, while businesses will see several additional taxes and expirations on prior tax cuts.

That’s nice.

China recently took efforts to stem a very frothy housing market, among other speculative investments.

Minimum down-payment levels and mortgage rates have been hiked; and they’ve considered an annual tax. Yet prices rose more than 12% in the biggest Chinese cities in the most recently reported month. An eventual 20% decrease in average home prices over the next 12 months is considered a reasonable estimate.

That’s nice.

US consumer sentiment still needs much more time to recover as Americans are faced with the potential of a double-dip recession, a government that seems unmotivated or ill-equipped (or both) to tackle reckless fiscal policy, persistent unemployment and a global economy that’s hoping Asian growth can counter European struggle.

Consumers and businesses are already reticent. Until their fears reside and expectations take a dramatic turn northward, the economic activity will remain subdued.

Looking through the rosy lens of the IMF, China’s bubble-potential shouldn’t throw Asia off track and Europe won’t be a very big drag on global finance or markets. Thus, the goal of doubling US exports in five years should remain on track.

That’s nice.

07/08/10
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For more from Jack, visit Black Swan Capital and register for their daily newsletter, Currency Currents.

 
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