FX Trading – A Full Opening Act ... to Keep Traders’ Blood Flowing
By Jack Crooks   
March 04, 2010

February US Nonfarm payrolls are reported tomorrow. Typically it’s a snooze-fest in the markets for the 24 hours or so leading up to that report. But the week’s been full of data points to give traders reason to stay awake.

Traders bit down on chances that the BOE will continue its quantitative easing measures. That, and concerns over the political situation and lingering debt problems, dogged the British pound earlier in the week. The BOE will almost certainly stay on hold with rates. Any negative reaction in the pound will depend upon the aggressiveness of the quantitative easing rhetoric in the BOE’s statement today.

Technically, GBPUSD seems due to bounce a bit higher after its plunge that began in mid-January:

Crooks 03/04/10
Click on image to enlarge!


The European Central Bank probably won’t be doing much today either. For one, obvious concern swirling around Greece and its Eurozone “buddies.” For two, its growth numbers continue to mostly lag those of most the rest of the world. As Jack has cited recently throughout our publications, this growth dynamic will impact interest rate expectations to the advantage of the Fed rather than the ECB, to the dollar rather than the euro.

But that said, we may get a short reprieve in the Greece-austerity-measures fiasco with the focus turning to US jobs. Plus, the euro too looks as though it’s in need of a bit more bounce, technically, especially as consensus has so quickly built against the euro and so quickly pushed it lower:

Crooks 03/04/10
Click on image to enlarge!


So, expect the kneejerk price spikes in the few minutes following the central banks’ announcements today. Perhaps will see some upside bias for EURUSD and GBPUSD in the wake of the reports; and as usual, don’t expect too much excitement until Nonfarm Payrolls tomorrow.

For more from Jack, visit Black Swan Capital and register for their daily newsletter, Currency Currents.

 
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