This chart of NZD/USD raises an interesting question regarding Elliott Wave analysis.

NZD/USD

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Perhaps some of the forthcoming data as discussed below will provide a catalyst to push NZD/USD in a decisive direction.

The NZD/USD has spent most of the last 24 hours consolidating in a relatively tight 0.7100-0.7150 range. Yesterday’s electronic card transactions bounced by much more than we’d expected in March. Overall transactions rose a solid 1.2% in seasonally adjusted terms (from February’s -0.3%). But the 2.1% jump in the retail-ECT series was sizeable, even as the volatile ECT data go. In the least, the data increased the odds of a big retail number for March, which helped underpin the NZD yesterday. From around 0.7670, NZD/AUD drifted up to nearly 0.7720

Today’s retail trade figures look set to be the highlight of this week’s batch of household sector data. For the month of February, these are expected to be about flat to fractionally higher, according to the various market polls. We are not so different, in picking overall retail sales increased 0.2%, with a 0.4% gain in ex-auto terms. With NZD sentiment still fairly perky, we suspect a negative result would be needed to push NZD/USD through support at 0.7070. Initial resistance is eyed on rallies towards 0.7180

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