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Despite all the volatile price action in the cross-markets yesterday, something very interesting happened.
Despite the overbought or oversold conditions of the inter-market structure, one fell-swoop brought all markets back to their 20 day Exponential Moving Averages.
Let’s take a quick chart fly-by to see what happened and what to watch from here.
First, the S&P 500:
Click on image to enlarge!
A 1.5% down move isn’t devastating – not like a 3% move or more. Price stayed overbought by most oscillator and showed negative momentum divergences, so little resolutions are quite common.
For now, price snapped-back to the rising 20 day EMA at the 1,160 level and rallied up off from just above this level today. That will be the key to watch: 1,160. It’s still a ‘bull’ above, and cautious under (1,150 specifically).
Gold:
Click on image to enlarge!
The big news today is certainly Gold, which fell 2.6% – down over $35 – in one of the largest one-day declines of the year.
Still, despite the harshness of the pullback, price fell to its stably rising 20 day EMA, where the selling stopped – so far – and held as support.
The key is of course watching whether $1,330 holds. If not, a lower move to $1,300 could be realized (which would be the 50d EMA).
Oil:
Click on image to enlarge!
I remember yesterday when traders were discussing the powerful move up in oil – only to have a MORE powerful move down today.
While yesterday’s low formed on the rising 20 day EMA and the high formed to the upper resistance level at $84, today was just the opposite – in a bigger way.
Price actually slightly sliced under the 20 EMA – currently at the $80.70 level – and further downside pressure likely pulls the index to the confluence support at $79 if oil can’t catch a bid here.
The US Dollar Index:
Click on image to enlarge!
Astute market observers know that the US Dollar Index generally moves OPPOSITE crude oil and often gold, along with the S&P 500.
So what’s good for the Dollar is bad for the other major markets listed above.
I wrote in this weekend’s Intermarket Report how I felt we could see a decent rally at least to the $78 level which reflected the 20 day EMA – that happened today.
I argued this based on the positive momentum divergence (not seen), “Bear Flag” measured move target down to the $76 level, and bullish candle formations – namely Thursday’s doji and Friday’s “Bearish Engulfing” Hammer Candle.
With that short-term target hit, what happens here is up to the Dollar – a break above the $78 level (20 day EMA) sets up a playable test to the $80 confluence level (50 day EMA and August low).
Of course, if the other markets re-assert their up-trends after retracing down into the 20 EMA, the Dollar would likely resume its downtrend by moving back down off the 20 EMA from the recent rally.
Keep a close eye on what happens across the markets this week.
For more daily updates from Corey, visit his blog at Afraid to Trade.com |