Grain traders have been patiently waiting for the November 9th USDA supply/demand and Crop Production reports to get released in hopes the fundamental news will move the markets out of their month-long range bound trend. On Wednesday morning the USDA released their numbers as follows: Corn production forecast at 12.3 billion bushels, down 1% from the October forecast and down 1% from 2010.

If these numbers are realized, this will be the fourth largest production total on record for the US. Based on conditions as of November 1st, yields are expected to average 146.7 bushels per acre, down 1.4 bushels from the October forecast and down 6.1 bushels from 2010. If realized, this will be the lowest average yield since 2003. Soybean productions are forecast at 3.05 billion bushels, down slightly from the October forecast, and down 9% from last year. Based on November 1st conditions, yields are expected to average 41.3 bushels per acre, down .2 bushels from last month and down 2.2 bushels from last year. If realized, the average yield will be the second lowest since 2003. Wheat supplies for 2011/12 are lowered 9 million bushels based on updated production estimates for the states resurveys following the September 30thSmall Grains report. Global wheat supplies for 2011/12 are projected 2.6 million tons higher mostly reflecting higher production in Kazakhstan.

Traders took these numbers as bearish, as prices declined into the end of the week. Corn futures ended the week at the lowest price level since October 14th at 6.2850 per bushel. Soybean futures broke below their major price support of 12.00 per bushel to settle the week at the lowest levels in 4 weeks at 11.7550 per bushel. Wheat futures made an outside weekly chart formation as prices traded above and below the prior week’s range. Wheat ended the week at their lowest levels since mid October, at 6.1675 per bushel.

For more information about the USDA reports, please visit USDA.gov

To learn more from Pratik and the guys at The Futures Room, visit their site at TheFuturesRoom.com