European Market Outlook
By Eurex   
February 13, 2012

EUROPEAN STOCKS: Major European bourses are initially seen trading higher Monday. Spreadbetters Cantor Index are calling the FTSE up 30,the DAX up 50 and the CAC up 24.

US STOCKS: Globex traded US index futures are higher across the board Monday, boosted by the news Greek parliament has voted to pass the latest austerity deal. The S&P Mar contract was last 5.7 points at 1346.3, with the Nasdaq Mar contract ahead by 11.0 points at 2559.5. Dow futures are also higher, up 49 points at 12816.

TSYS: Treasuries are trading lower across the board in Asian trade Monday, with prices slipping on a modest risk appetite bid across asset classes as Greek Parliament votes for austerity bill. However, traders say downside remains underpinned by dip-buying from Japanese names around the 2.0% level in the 10-yr sector. The yield on the 2Y was last at 0.27%, with the 5Y at 0.83%, the 10Y at 2.00% and the Bond at 3.15%.

JGBS: Japanese government bond prices were little changed this morning, recovering from early declines caused by positive news on Greece's fiscal situation. Cash bonds were broadly supported by investors' dip-buying but bonds remained top-heavy. Banks appeared to be buying medium-term bonds, while life insurance firms were seen buying super long-term bonds. The benchmark 10-year yield was flat at 0.975%

ASIAN STOCKS: Japan's benchmark stock indices ended Monday's session higher. The Nikkei ended up 0.58%, to stand at 8999.2. The broader-based TOPIX was higher by 2.48 points at 781.55. Preliminary volume in the Nikkei stocks totaled 1.107 bn shares, with 138 issues higher, 59 lower and 28 unchanged. The Shanghai Composite Index ends the morning session up 0.14% at 2,355.19. The Hang Seng Index ends the morning up 0.70% at 20,928.56.

OIL: Crude futures are higher Monday, with the front-month WTI contract higher by 92 cents at $99.59. The contract traded a range of $99.09 to $99.64.

Technical Analysis

BUND: (H12) Resistance At 138.73/76

2/13/2012
Click on image to enlarge!


RES 4: 139.63/89 Channel top from 13 Jan, High 31 Jan
RES 3: 139.59 High 3 Feb
RES 2: 139.14/19 High 6 Feb, 76.4% of 139.89 to 136.93
RES 1: 138.73/76 21-DMA, 61.8% of 139.89-136.93

CLOSING PRICE: 138.23

SUP 1: 138.11 5-day moving average
SUP 2: 137.96 Highs 8, 9 Feb
SUP 3: 137.23 Intra-day gap base from 9 Feb
SUP 4: 136.78/92 Projected channel base

COMMENTARY: H12 achieved upside near-term upside target following impressive bounce ahead of the projected channel base and the daily Bollinger band base, which is now valued at 136.78/136.92, respectively. Resistance now seen at the 21-day moving average at 138.73 and 138.76 Fibonacci level -- 61.8% retracement of the decline from 139.89 high.

Eurostoxx50 Techs Shooting Star Candlestick Reversal Pattern Seen

2/13/2012
Click on image to enlarge!


RES 4: 2608.0 Low 11 July
RES 3: 2560.0/2585 Low 25 Aug, 2010,
RES 2: 2543.7 Bollinger band top
RES 1: 2507.6 5-day moving average

PREVIOUS CLOSE: 2480.8

SUP 1: 2435/2445/2452 200 & 21-day moving average,
SUP 2: 2397.5 Low 30 Jan
SUP 3: 2358.9/2360 Daily Bollinger band base
SUP 4: 2287.7 Low 6 Jan

COMMENTARY: Shooting star candlestick pattern Thursday and potential bearish cross of daily stochastic study -- leaves risk of correction lower near-term after price action confirmed a close below the 5-day moving average. Risk is seen to 2435/2445/2452, which is the 200 & 21-day moving average's and also support line from Nov 25.

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