The Rooster Call: Good News for Risk Acceptance

Hit the Mark Trading’s Brief Review of Overnight Market Action Setting the Tone for the Trading Day

  • The Ukraine tempest appears to lose momentum and that’s good for risk acceptance. The question now is how can everyone “save face?” Sanctions on Russia would certainly prove the West can respond to aggression with a hit to the pocket book. The action “de-fangs” the bear and sends a strong signal to China.
  • China sets a 7.5% growth target for 2014 and that’s good for risk acceptance.
  • Chinese Services PMI rises from 50.7 to 51…market positive.
  • Australian dollar moves higher on better than expected Q4 GDP, even as Australia’s central bank attempts to talk the currency lower. Aussie helped by China’s forecast.
  • Euro zone and UK Services PMI all notch “better than expected” readings…market positive.
  • Euro zone retail sales volumes rise 1.6% against expectations of a 0.8% rise…market positive.
  • ADP reports USA firms added 139,000 jobs in February, missing expectations of 158,000…blame the weather. Friday is the report that counts.

Today’s Reports and FED Activity

08:15AM ET – ADP Employment Report – A private report thought to provide clues to Friday’s government report. Sometimes the divergence between the two is quite large. The market defaults to the government report.
10:00AM ET – ISM Non-Manufacturing Index – This reports should gain status as the USA economy moves away from manufacturing toward the services sector.
10:30AM ET – EIA Petroleum Status Report – The Crude report.
14:00PM ET – FED Beige Book – The list of facts used by the FED for determining monetary policy and economic outlook.
19:00PM ET – That’s 7PM, FED Fisher Speaks
20:30PM ET – FED Williams Speaks

Overnight/Pre-Market

  • Yen falls and that’s a good thing.
  • Euro incrementally lower. Tomorrow is ECB monetary policy statement.
  • US dollar will move on ECB and Friday’s Employment Situation Report.
  • Bonds looking lower testing support.
  • ES/YM/NQ/TF incrementally higher. Global equity indexes waiting for USA open.
  • Crude incrementally lower moving with Brent.
  • Brent hits our bench mark with reversal signal on daily chart.
  • Natural gas quiet consolidating the bull’s tearful big price drop.
  • Gold rose Monday, fell Tuesday giving up gains, and now is incrementally higher.
  • Coffee incrementally lower.

Day Trader Bench Marks

Intraday ES Floor Pivots – Using 24 hour electronic market hours 1800-1715 ET.

R3: 1914.25
R2: 1894.50
R1: 1883

Main floor pivot: 1863.25

S1: 1851.75
S2: 1832
S3: 1820.50

Intraday Euro Floor Pivot – Using 24 hour electronic market hours 1800-1700 ET.

R3: 1.3839
R2: 1.3811
R1: 1.3777

Main floor pivot: 1.3749

S1: 1.3715
S2: 1.3687
S3: 1.3653

Think About This!

Beige Book days can see a normal morning market action followed by a choppy tight range leading into 2PM ET. I always think this is a good day for an extended lunch.

Let me remind you of the Trader Kingdom/ICE sponsored Spring Trading Clinic. For more information on this event please click here: http://traderkingdom.com/futures-basics/5950-spring-trading-clinic-webinar-education-series

I will speak at this event on March 13th. Please register to attend. If you are unable to listen to the live session, not to worry! A recording link goes out to all who sign up.

Have a great trading day!

To learn more from Martin, visit HitTheMarkTrading.com to join his mailing list and receive blog updates.