The Rooster Call: Last Trading Day of the Year

Hit the Mark Trading’s Brief Review of Overnight Market Action Setting the Tone for the Trading Day

Good Morning Traders!

The last trading day of the year is upon us.  Volumes are down across the board this week in typical holiday trading I hope your 2014 trading met or exceeded your expectations.

We enjoyed a wonderful year at Hit the Mark Trading, especially with our long-term Euro short, but also with crude, cotton corn, and soy beans among others. Taking the trade showing the results, win/lose/or draw proved very popular with clients.

Last night I in the nightly video, I made the commitment to track more trade signals.  So instead of me saying for example “if you trade Australian dollar (or whatever), you have a signal,”  now we will actually take the trade on everything!  I expect this will keep us busy.

In overnight news, Crude continues the downward trajectory. No doubt USA traders will attempt to push it back up…keep in mind that in the face of the known super light trading volume you must be careful if you decide to trade today.  Out of a quiet market a sudden lurch up $300+ bucks a contract in CL can occur under light volume conditions. 

Equity index futures are in the green across the board finishing out the last year with a gain on the last day of trading…so far.  Bonds continue rising in safe harbor bid.

As for the news, the Financial Times is THE ONLY SERVICE reporting “ICE bans disruptive trading strategies”  as a head line.  (I searched Reuters and Bloomberg finding nothing on the ICE news).  It is as if these two services decided they would not show the dirty laundry to their readers.

Here’s a quote from the FT.com article: Intercontinental Exchange has explicitly banned an array of market strategies — from flooding its systems with data to tricking others by cancelling orders — in a tougher stance towards electronic trading groups.

This is a positive move tor retail traders.

Considering the time of year and some Asian markets closed today, the news is sparse.  Folks are concentrating on ringing in the New Year.

I hope you have gained trader perspective market insight beneficial to your development or that I simply made you more aware of market correlations, macro economic impacts, and even a trading tip or two…such as our normal Friday expectation of a lower Euro.

Importantly, I hope to have proven you must think for yourself and compare news sources.

As we look ahead into 2015, I think a lot of commodities currently listless will make a move in the first quarter. Hit the Mark Trading will trade the futures AND exchange traded funds (EFTs) replicating the futures.  The number one chart you should watch…whether you continue Rooster Call or not, is a chart of aggregate commodities.

 I watch the CRB Index, but there are others you can watch too.  You want to know when money starts moving back into physical commodities. It’s a big deal.  We look at this chart in each weekend Trader Weekly Review. We simply want to answer the question in our mind…where is global money flowing?

To  be forewarned is to be forearmed…in trading, advanced warning provides an advantage. 

Thank you for reading Rooster Call.  Happy New Year to all!

Martin

Today’s Reports and FED Activity
7:00 MBA Mortgage Applications
8:30 Initial Jobless Claims
9:45 Chicago PMI
9:45 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:00 Pending Home Sales
10:30 EIA Petroleum Inventories
12:00 PM EIA Natural Gas Inventory

Overnight / Pre-Market

  • Equity indexes are barely registering a pulse, but the pulse is incremental green.  This is good considering crude continues dropping in the pre-market.
  • VIX is quiet.
  • Bonds are higher as safety trade.
  • Natural gas is lower today. Old man winter is not helping.
  • Copper dangerous in consolidation with downward bias.
  • Grains quiet after yesterday’s profit-taking. Beans working on third day lower after knocking us out.
  • Cotton saw big profit-taking in the overnight session.
  • Cocoa lower
  • Sugar and coffee lower and muted.
  • US dollar incrementally higher, but nothing special.
  • Euro incrementally lower.  2015 we will etch much lower levels.
  • Aussie dollar is higher for the week.  Perhaps there is hope iron ore has stopped hemorrhaging.

Think About This!

A new year…a new beginning.  No matter what occurred in your trading in 2014, you can trade better in 2015. Never forget each day in trading is an opportunity to start fresh

Trading should be number one reflection of your knowledge of you…your strengths and weaknesses as a trader.  Trading should be about your knowledge of the price action on the charts. Trading should be about knowing when to trade and importantly…knowing when not to trade.

Day trading is the most difficult, yet the most alluring type of trading. Position trading is riding the bigger wave. Let your paper trading prove you can do this.  Build a quiet confidence. 

Most of all you should surround yourself with positive people, positive influences, and positive self-opinion (without arrogance). Trading does not define you as a person of who you are.  If you make a nice trade…nothing special…you are not super intelligent.  If you have a series of losses…nothing special…you are not worthless and stupid. You had better be your own best friend in this business or your mind will do you in faster than anything else. Got a problem with that?  Stop trading. 

Above all…keep the trading as simple as you can. Your mission is telling the time…not building a watch.

Have a great trading day! Have a great trading year in 2015!

To learn more from Martin, visit HitTheMarkTrading.com to join his mailing list and receive blog updates.