The Rooster Call: Marching Toward Black Friday

Hit the Mark Trading’s Brief Review of Overnight Market Action Setting the Tone for the Trading Day

Australian dollar trade now showing profit of $1300+ , but caused a little worry last night when the currency started rising on comments from the RBA Deputy Governor. We took action moving protective stop to break even since we know currencies are a.) fickle and b.) prone to move according to the latest utterance of a central bank official.

The Aussie has made a new lower low since our position opened. Everything is working according to plan. I appreciate all clients shadowing this educational trade called “in advance.” 91.38 is the new resistance level. Trade entered November 21.

Volume has moved to March for Corn. December contract is still trading of course with first notice date of delivery this Friday. 95% of harvest is complete. Allendale reports producers are holding product until price rises.

We are marching toward Black Friday seeing equity index futures marking time. Today we have Housing Starts and Consumer Confidence as data points for market response. Keep in mind Wednesday is the busiest travel day in the USA. Those going to work typically try to scoot out around noon. We have a holiday on Thursday and shortened trading hours on Friday with junior clerks manning the controls at large trading institutions. If you must trade, consider limiting to morning rush hour only.

Today’s Reports and FED Activity

8:30 AM ET – Housing Starts
9:00 AM ET – Case-Shiller Home Price Index
10:00 AM ET – Consumer Confidence
10:00 AM ET – Richmond FED Manufacturing Survey
Source: Econoday.com

Overnight/Pre-Market

  • Euro Yen cross has potential reversal signal printed on Monday…monitor.
  • ES has potential reversal signal printed Monday…monitor. All equity indexes we monitor in Europe and USA are marking time overbought climbing a wall of worry a midst extremely strong trend and momentum. The only thing to break this is some kind of event causing knee-jerk reaction. Otherwise expect more of the same.
  • 30-Year bonds creeping up. We talked about a set-up in bonds last night.
  • Crude going nowhere languishing sideways looking to Brent for direction and support strength. If you trade NYMEX crude you need to monitor Brent.
  • Gold can’t hold looking lower.
  • DEC Corn quiet.
  • January Soybeans broke resistance thanks to yesterday’s crop export report.
  • Cocoa consolidating.
  • Coffee gave a nice whack on Friday. Price attempts to fill a gap. It’s what happens after the gap fill we watch.
  • Yen recovered from yesterday’s drop, but still weak.
  • Euro – nothing special here…sideways afraid to buy and afraid to sell mentality.
  • US Dollar has daily chart trying to confirm new trend whilst weekly chart says, “No, we continue down trend.” Price must resolve the issue.

Day Trader Bench Marks

Intraday ES Floor Pivots – Using 24 hour electronic market hours 1800-1715 ET.

R3: 1819
R2: 1814.25
R1: 1808.25

Main floor pivot: 1803.25

S1: 1797.50
S2: 1792.75
S3: 1786.25

Intraday Euro Floor Pivot – Using 24 hour electronic market hours 1800-1700 ET.

R3: 1.3624
R2: 1.3592
R1: 1.3554

Main floor pivot: 1.3522

S1: 1.3484
S2: 1.3452
S3: 1.3414

Think About This…

Expect slower trading Wednesday and Friday.

Are you struggling trading ES or other equity indexes? Branch out. Find instruments with larger trading range. If your trading plan is good enough for equity indexes, it should work on anything, right?

Have a great trading day!

To learn more from Martin, visit HitTheMarkTrading.com to join his mailing list and receive blog updates.