I have to admit to a deep-seated pet peeve -— it is guru-ism. Let me explain by example. I was watching an analyst who appeared on CNBC the other day. I don't even remember his name though it was a reminder why I almost never watch CNBC, or any other business show on the tube. What struck me was the guy's confidence in his own story. Sharp, crisp, well-dressed, and authoritarian he sounded as the pithy platitudes poured from his lips at breathtaking speed. "Wow! This guy really knows his stuff," I imagine many viewers were saying to themselves.

Just what CNBC and our "analyst of the day" wanted them to think. But this type of guy is dangerous to your portfolio -— for hubris (the Greek God of exaggerated self pride) is what steals our profits.

I'm not saying we stop trying to predict the future; after all, we'd never take an investment position unless we based it on some inherent belief about future events -— which technically boils down to prediction. But we need to understand that our understanding of casual links in the investment world is tenuous at best. Overconfidence, which morphs quickly into hubris; we've all had our hubris-filled moments. I have. But I also dodged one such moment recently.

Recently, I went to Chicago to meet with some people who trade futures and forex. It's always a great trip —- especially when you visit one of the trading floors and watch the game up close and personal -— it gets my blood pumping every time I see it (though sadly being overtaken by electronics). In the course of conversation during the meeting, in an effort to promote our joint business interests, one of the guys asked me: Why don't you write a book? My first reaction was laughter, then a tinge of self-importance leaked in, and sure maybe he was blowing smoke, but I think he was serious. So I quickly buried the self-important part by reminding my ego that I wasn't in the midst of my best trading year, to say the least, and I gave him this answer: I would never be hubris-filled enough to think any book I wrote would be worth reading. I still stand by that.

And I guess it's because I have a deep-seated belief that smart money —- run by smart people -— is relatively quiet. It's only occasionally that we get a glimpse into the smart stuff, and we know it when we see it, for those are the books that standout above the rest.

Let's face it, of the millions of so-called trading and investment books written over the years only a handful stand out. And sadly, there seem to be fewer and fewer written each year that even fall into the "decent" category. I think it's because most of the investment books written today are nothing more than PR puff pieces penned to promote budding gurus —- or as I define them: "People that play pretend with other people's money; legends in their own minds." But that's my perspective. Many people love gurus. They lap them up in fact. And that's why I think many get themselves into trouble when it comes to investments -— they want to believe their favorite guru can predict the future. And that's why CNBC trots out the type of guy I told you about.

The reason I detest those who really believe they are gurus is because over the years I have seen people who are really good -— they don't just pretend -— and these traders display the exact opposite characteristics of guru-ism.

They are usually low-key, humble, focused, and almost a bit nerdish at times. They don't talk about the market unless asked. They have a burning passion for learning more and more about how markets work—they never assume the mantle of expert. When they talk about trading and markets, they hesitate, and change directions in mid-sentence, going off on one tangent after another -— usually finding and sharing a contradiction to their own opinion. This is definitely not the type of guy CNBC wants on their program. That fact speaks volumes.

So, if I ever go on TV, I hope I don't sound too good.

Jack Crooks
Black Swan Capital