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To wrap up this holiday week, here's a summary of what we're seeing on a variety of markets. I've included a few charts in this article, but you can also download a file with the complete set of charts to go along with my daily report.
Click here to download a file of the charts related to this report.
While we’re dealing with extremely narrow ranges on the index charts during this holiday week, it’s worth noting that ES and YM have both hit the initial 45 minute upside targets and we’re currently holding the high established during yesterday’s ES 45 minute timing resistance. It’s possible that current highs are pivotal, at least in the short term. So far there hasn’t been enough of a pullback to even start to shift the patterns to downside on those 45 minute charts, and unless we see a break of at least the first labeled key support levels, all patterns remain to upside. If these support levels do indeed break, we’ll focus on where time and price would come together to provide support. Because the range has been so narrow even on the 45 minute charts, the initial downside targets on those breaks would be fairly close by: ES 1244, YM 11423, NQ 2200 and TF, 780.80. But the more important factor is that we’d take out prior swing lows on these charts and build resistance. The key to additional downside would be whether new resistance holds on a bounce!
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The bond is obviously consolidating between the 50 minute (and daily) .786 levels at the moment. A break above 121’14 would place the target as a precise overlap with the strong daily resistance at 122’27. TLT still has the possibility of forming the Gartley resistance pattern as shown on the 60 minute chart. A break above 93.60 places this resistance pattern focus at 95 to 96. TBT (inverse bond ETF) shows a similar Gartley support pattern, reinforcing current support down to 36, with the key .786 support level determining trend right below that.
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Gold continues to rally from the daily Gartley support pattern. As mentioned yesterday, ordinarily we wouldn’t be too concerned about the intervening .786 resistance in a pattern like this, but considering that we’re asking for major new swing highs, we’ll need to confirm that the targets are attainable with a break of this remaining resistance. The YG chart shows minor timing resistance today as highlighted with the red squares on the chart in the file. Stronger timing resistance is in place for January 12th – 13th. Silver and SLV broke key resistance yesterday and should be on the way to the bold daily targets on the daily charts.
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Crude is holding the highs made at targets with minor timing resistance reinforcing this zone. As mentioned previously, the pattern suggests additional upside to the major daily targets just under $100, but each leg of this rally has seen significant pullbacks from target zones along the way. So far we’re not seeing any challenge to key support levels, and if the rally continues we have timing resistance in place with a focus on January 6th. Should there be a drop before then, we’ll shift the emphasis to timing support instead.
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Soybeans pulling back from the daily target, corn made a slight new high and remains on track for the daily target above. Wheat broke the daily .786 resistance and the focus is on the daily upside target.
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The dollar held yesterday’s key intraday resistance and the focus is on whether or not the 79.25 support holds or breaks. This coincides with the intraday (60 minute) downside target, and would also serve as the gateway to the downside target and Gartley support pattern as shown on the daily.
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Notes on the 60 minute Forex charts in the file reflect the daily patterns as well.
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