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Gartley Pattern Providing Fibonacci Support on Crude |
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By Mark Braun
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January 13, 2011
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In last week's article I discussed the likelihood of a pullback on Crude since price had reached overlapping Fibonacci targets. But the outstanding major upside target made it more likely that we'd just see an interim high with support holding on a pullback. Here's the updated daily chart:
Click on image to enlarge!
The major target just above $99 is the 1.272 extension of last April’s high to May’s low. The high against targets held, but the pullback was rather minor. Holding at the .382 retracement from the prior low to high swing implies that there’s still a great deal of interest in upside here. And there was strong confirmation of support holding on the intraday charts as well. Here’s a 60 minute:
Click on image to enlarge!
The A-B-C-D correction labeled also qualifies as an even stronger Gartley support pattern since the downside target extensions also overlapped strong daily support retracements. This is a zig-zag corrective move which fulfills very specific Fibonacci based requirements. When it shows up, there’s a very high probability that it will hold. Point C on the chart held at the .618 retracement resistance of point A to B. At that point, we run downside target extensions from point B to C, and look for a hold at or between the 1.272 and 1.618 targets to downside as point D. The initial target projected is 1.272 times the entire swing taken from point A to point D as shown at $94. Even a conservative entry based on this timeframe would have occurred with a CCI trigger at 89, with earlier entries possible from a faster chart. This also coincided with an additional confirming daily long side trigger, and since all support held on the daily, longer term investors had no reason to see the upside pattern as violated in any way.
For more from Mark including his “Chart of the Day”, visit MJBraun.net. |