Monday morning's high on the S&P cash daily chart hit our 1.272 target and held firmly:

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We also had timing ratios pointing to a possible high being established from last Friday to Monday. The combination of these ratios in both time and price made this a very likely spot to look for at least a corrective decline.

Here’s the equivalent ES chart:

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While the target was overshot slightly at the open, we did indeed close below it. Yesterday found support at the .382 retracement of the April 18th low to Monday’s high. That’s the minimum pullback we’d expect to see on a retracement from a strong target level, and also represents the point of debate for additional upside. If market participants are committed to driving this higher, we’d expect to see a hold there.

There’s more to the story on the ES 45 minute chart:

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A support break yesterday morning actually points to the target and support overlap at 1333, making it far more likely that yesterday’s low was just an interim stopping point. A break below this level would call the target at 1312 into play. Preliminary timing support calculations point to the possibility of a daily pivot low being established late next week. Meanwhile, if we do see that 1312 target, the next major ES price support factor is the 1306.75 level on the daily. A break of that level would call for a downside daily target at 1270. I’ll focus on the possibility of 1270 – 1306 coinciding with Fibonacci timing support factors too.

Meanwhile the intraday patterns are all to downside and we’re approaching key support which will let us know whether the focus will indeed remain on downside, carrying the downside pattern over to the daily charts. Be extremely careful with longs if we see 1333 broken, at least until the target is completed at 1312!

For more from Mark including his “Chart of the Day”, visit MJBraun.net.