European Market Outlook
By Eurex   

EUROPEAN STOCKS: Major European bourses are initially seen trading lower Friday. Spreadbetters Cantor Index are calling the FTSE down 30, the DAX down 33 and the CAC down 19.

US STOCKS: The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 22 points at 12734.63 and the Nasdaq Composite closed down 13 points at 2805.28. Earlier, the Dow Industrials posted a new 2012 high of 12,841.95 and the Nasdaq posted a new 2012 high of 2834.30. US index futures are trading modestly lower in Asia Friday. The S&P Mar contract was last 1.1 lower at 1314.2, with the Nasdaq Mar contract down 0.5 points at 2453.0. Dow futures are also lower, down 4 points at 12680

JGBS: Japanese government bond prices were mostly higher this morning as short-covering was triggered by overnight rises in U.S. Treasury prices. But some gains were erased by profit-taking amid concern over higher prices led by recent rapid rises in prices leaving JGBs top-heavy with market players waiting for fresh material for trading. The benchmark 10-year yield was 1.5 bps lower at 0.965%

JAPAN STOCKS: Japan's benchmark stock indices ended Friday's session lower. The Nikkei ended down 0.09%, to stand at 8841.22. The broader-based TOPIX was lower by 2.30 points at 762.31.

FX MARKETS: Euro-dollar opened in Asia at $1.3109 after slipping back from NY highs of $1.3184 on soft US housing data and comments from Juncker that the ECB wouldn't accept losses on Greek debt which weighed on sentiment. Asian markets this morning saw some heavy selling of euro-yen and aussie-yen into the Tokyo fix, which helped push euro-dollar down through $1.3080 stops to $1.3077 before a recovery back to $1.3119. Dollar-yen continued to give backs gains from Wednesday's highs, opening at Y77.47 and falling to Y77.27 on cross sales before returning towards opening levels. Another push then saw stops hit through Y77.25 to Y76.90 as traders booked profits ahead of the weekend. Cable drifted lower to $1.5661 from $1.5697, with the eurostg adding weight on a rise to stg0.8364 from stg0.8344. Euroswiss remained under pressure as traders continue to target the chf 1.2050 barrier, but held up in a tight chf1.2061-74 range. Aussie-dollar eased with the euro from $1.0641 to $1.0592 before recovering to sit around $1.0610.

OIL: Crude futures are trading higher in Asia, although sitting just below $100. The front-month WTI contract was last 20 cent shigher at $99.90, having traded a range of $99.65 to $100.40.

Technical Analysis

BUND: (H12) Pressures 21-Day Moving Average

1/20/2012
Click on image to enlarge!


RES 4: 140.16/23/26 1.75% yield, High, Bollinger
RES 3: 139.51 76.4% of 140.23-137.18
RES 2: 139.06 61.8% of 140.23-137.18
RES 1: 138.92 High 26 Jan

LAST PRICE: 138.82

SUP 1: 137.82/85 Gap base from Jan 25, 5-DMA
SUP 2: 137.18 Double-day low 24, 25 Jan, Bollinger
SUP 3: 136.69 Low 21 Dec
SUP 4: 136.55 50% retracement of 132.87 rally

COMMENTARY: H12 pushed back to break the 21-DMA, which today comes in at 138.71. Close above here is positive and comes with recovering momentum, but the daily stochastic study remains weak, sending a warning signal and suggesting the 21-DMA could be pivotal.

Eurostoxx50 Techs: Bulls Try to Focus on 200-DMA

1/20/2012
Click on image to enlarge!


RES 4: 2523.9 61.8% retracement of 2887 decline
RES 3: 2506.2 High 28 Oct
RES 2: 2470.0 Bollinger band
RES 1: 2462.0 200-day moving average

PREVIOUS CLOSE: 2460.4 SUP 1: 2398.4 Low 25 Jan
SUP 2: 2368.0 21-day moving average
SUP 3: 2295.0 55-day moving average
SUP 4: 2279.7 Low 9 Jan

COMMENTARY: 2012 has seen the index build on support from the 21-DMA and follow the top of the Bollinger band higher amid positive daily studies. The bulls now have that 200-DMA in their sights, although with overstretched daily studies, the market may fade here for now.

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