Long time, no talk.... mostly writing Market Mind Games here...so a bit sequestered for now...

So here's the thing - your brain, when faced with uncertainty like the markets, uses context to understand what it sees. It DOES NOT, like most trading "experts" try to teach you, look at the situation in the same way as the objective probabilities of say a dice game. Whether you like it or not, your noggin' knows that trading is in reality, subjective.

How much confidence do you have in your context (which you can think of as your trade set-up)? In other words, you go first (unconsciously) from building a context, to asking yourself how much you believe in the scenario in your head (a feeling of course) and then onto what are your key perceptions (meaning) of what you see happening before you.

You have been taught to learn some scenarios, wait for them to happen and then execute. Yet no matter what - you can't do that all that well or nearly as well as you would like.

Well guess what? It is because you aren't working with your brain - you are working against the way it deals with uncertain situations.

The clues to solving this are:

1. Learn to track your own "fC" - or feelings context - as you evaluate potential entries and exits. This will enlighten you as to the true dimension that is making the decision and reveal to you your actual subjective probabilities....
2. Realize that subjective probabilities are ALWAYS a game of judgment calls ... and a game of judgment calls against other very strong, well prepared competitors.

Trading is hard. You can either continue to beat your head against the wall trying to believe in absolute probabilities or you can recognize how your own brain handles the conflicting interpretations the the market always gives. And then use both the "fC" and better and better judgment.

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