On August 10th when I sent my last post, I spoke of the possibility of the U.S. Dollar being on the mend. In that article it was a "thought" and surprisingly the "thought" came to light on a pair that has been the so called safe-haven at the time - the Swiss Franc (CHF). Prior to the world dealing with the debt ceiling drama and the Fed's announcement to keep rates at historic lows until mid-2013, the USDCHF was acting as it should (USD prices dropping and CHF prices rising). The currency pair has been acting in kind for quite some time now spanning back almost a decade. The Swiss Franc has been flexing its muscle over the greenback year in and year out.
In the moments just after the Fed’s message prices slammed 600 points that day. But in true fashion after big news that traders have been waiting for hits the wires, prices reacted initially as they should (USDCHF fell dramatically lower). However, after the shock was absorbed and a confirmed bottom was secured (seeing higher highs the next few days), the beaten down side of the market (USD) tends to reverse. The reason is that all of the bad news is now revealed and out in the open. Time for healing to begin so to speak. In the days following the news, prices reversed and started to do what I thought they might, which was for the USDCHF to climb. Since I already had a plan in place, I knew how to implement it precisely so when the opportunity hit , I acted without hesitation and took full advantage on August 11th and 12th. The point I truly want to make is not that these trades worked in my favor but the importance of having a plan.
1. A thought,
2. Knowing how to implement that thought precisely
3. Following through and executing that thought without hesitation
4. Reviewing your performance
Now I was fully prepared for a positive or negative outcome but in either event I would have been pleased with my performance because I had a thought; I had the tools and know how to implement the thought precisely; and I followed through by executing without hesitation.
Many students, business owner wannabees and entrepreneurs alike might know how to dream big and talk big, but do you have the fortitude to take the 3 most important steps following the big idea?
RDS Trader Alerts Archive August 12, 2011 (all times Pacific):
•(6:13:37 AM): good morning!! today’s reports and chart snapshot: http://www.rdsfx.com
•(6:15:53 AM): not much movement across the board…USDCHF on radar again (Bullish bias)…hasn’t pushed that far but minor support (1L pullback) 0.7687…counter resistance showing up session high to 0.7829 (4L range)
• (6:17:14 AM): buy order pending 0.7687usdchf
•(6:41:52 AM): consumer sentiment report in about 10 min.
•(6:53:45 AM): minor support forming EURUSD at session redline 1.4239 (weekly 1.4240)…don’t really like redline setups…USDCHF looks best so far
•(6:55:20 AM): USDCHF moving back in uptrend on 15min…any longs out there looking for session high to 0.7829
•(7:08:21 AM): prices sloshing around…slight downtrend now on USDCHF…careful any existing longs…I am waiting 7687 buy limit pending
•(7:10:04 AM): EURUSD trading thru 1.4240 mark…I’m going to watch that one …focus on USDCHF
•(7:34:52 AM): quiet Friday so far…
•(7:36:21 AM): USDCHF moving back in downtrend on 15min…support still expected 1st time back in window down to 0.7687
•(7:41:42 AM): long 4 at 0.7687 USDCHF
•(7:42:48 AM): that’s nice of them so far…
•(7:43:21 AM): going for a nice ride!!
•(7:44:13 AM): just took half off @ 0.7707 (+20 on each)…still running long 2 from 0.7687
•(7:47:25 AM): very nice!! still running long …looking for session 0.7764 high to possible 0.7829 -4L range target
•(7:51:45 AM): have a 0.7727 stop on remaining with 10 pip trailer to lock in +40 on remaining 2 long and will move it up if it keeps going
•(7:57:17 AM): glad I laid of EURUSD…hate redline trades…I will take the USDCHF …flat now… +40 on each of last 2…+120 total on entire trade
•(7:58:32 AM): going to leave on a high note and call it a day. Have a great weekend everybody!!
Click on image to enlarge!
Here is a snapshot of my open orders book on USDCHF long plays the day earlier on 08/11/11
Click on image to enlarge!
Whatever you decide to try; you can’t expect to win, if you don’t have a plan in place
Trade Strong!! Trade Smart!! and Always Have Enough to Trade Tomorrow!!
For more RDS articles on trading, visit www.rdstrader.com.