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Who's kicking themselves for not getting back into the stock market in 2009? How about the start of 2010? Price action over the first 2 months of this year gave market pessimists the confidence to take a long winter's nap, but the blood pressure has to be boiling now as market bears are caught mid-yawn. It feels the market is primed for the optimists of the world to finish a race for once.
The first quarter results are in and the second quarter is upon us. Today finds the Dow Jones Industrial Average touchin g the psychological 11,000 mark and up nearly 7% on the year. The S&P 500 is up 8%, and the NASDAQ up 9%, but topping them all is the Russell 2000, which is up more than 15% year to date. If we are truly coming out of this recession, the small cap stocks generally lead the way. Upcoming start-up businesses are the foundation of our economy's future and after weathering some cold January and February breezes the small cap index, Russell 2000, is leading the bull-run at tax-time.
At the end of 2009 we wrote an article "Feeling the Heat in December" and to refresh your memory we spoke of some crucial dates, December 31st (the end of the year) and Tax-Day, April 15th. We are procrastinators by nature and investors tend to pump money into their 401k's in April to take advantage of tax breaks. The economy's performance will be scrutinized very closely the remainder of spring and the start of summer. Just like the Masters golf tournament names the holes after something significant to the game, I am summing up the investing year like this : 1st quarter is "Testing the Waters", 2nd Quarter is the "Set-Up", 3rd Quarter is "Moving Day" and 4th Quarter is the "Finish".
After going through "Testing the Waters" the stock market is proving to be resilient as we move into the "Set-Up". I've always felt the second quarter sets the tone for the year, so in order for this rally to have merit, keep a watchful eye on the core tools the Federal Reserve and Chairman Ben Bernanke monitor closely, which is the Employment data and the Employment Cost Index. A bad 3 month stretch of data could leave us saying, "Not Again" and send our "Moving Day" to the outhouse. Barring any geo-political events coupled with solid employment results and stable employment costs this next quarter will add some legs to help send us to the penthouse through "Moving Day". I say, "Let's taste success into the 'Finish' of 2010".
You can't win, if you don't play!! Prosperity is at your fingertips! All you have to do is grab it!!
For more RDS articles on trading, visit www.rdstrader.com.
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